Questions and Answers: Afternoon Session

Question 1: (Jonathan Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) In the analysis of water and air temperatures that fed into Susan´s work on the potential economic impacts of climate change on fresh water recreational fishing opportunities in the U.S., were warm- versus cold-dominated systems split out, or was a mean value used?

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) A mean value was used in the analysis.

Question 2: (Jonathan Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) I´m wondering if groundwater-dominated systems may buffer against climate change impacts to some extent, given their colder, more stable water. Are our predictions about the decimation of cold-water species in groundwater-dominated streams really as extreme as the projections discussed today?

Response: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) Groundwater follows mean annual temperatures, so it would still be affected, though there may be a greater lag time in its response to ambient temperatures.

Response: (John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin-Madison) Modeling of groundwater-fed streams under the scenario of a doubling of carbon dioxide has been done, and, though they have not indicated 100 percent loss like the work presented today, they did end up with considerable shortening of stream miles that are cold water. I also wonder if any of the streams monitored by the USGS are actually trout streams.

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) These were just a sample of streams, they were not discerned—so some may be trout streams.

Response: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) There is also a confounding influence of stream hydrograph performance as a function of whether or not fish species are groundwater fed or surface water fed. That is something dealt with in an assessment by David Allen, at the University of Michigan, where some attention was paid to the issue of cold water fish in groundwater-dominated systems. That may be a source worth consulting.

Question 3: (Jonathan Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) I have seen that assessment and it really does not address the question of to what extent the hydrologic performance will affect species. I am interested in the conservation angle, in terms of what potential degree of impacts will result for different types of systems, and what spatial configurations we will have to take into account when spending conservation dollars. Are there certain streams systems that might naturally be buffered from climate change, based on water sources?

Response: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) The final steady state solution is still going to be towards warmer groundwater temperatures, though it may take a longer time to get there. If it is a variance issue, you might be able to see the buffering work, which is an excellent topic for further analysis.

Question 4: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) In Susan´s economic analysis on recreational fishing, five of the species considered were exotic species. How did that fit into your economic calculations, when it came to stocking those fish?

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) The numbers were not costs of stocking. Essentially, they are estimates of what a person is willing to pay to spend a day fishing for that type of fish. We did not look at any issues concerning the maintenance of fish populations. The economic analysis looks at what people value the most, without differentiating between native and exotic or what will survive best.

Question 5: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) Looking into the future, what might the costs be of maintaining suitable fisheries, of re-stocking systems, or stocking something else?

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) We did not look at how costs might change in terms of stocking, or any issues related to maintaining fish populations. As for the costs of maintaining fisheries, this analysis did not assess that. That would be an excellent to look at further. As it is now, they introduce new stocks of species into systems during the summer months, for the sole purpose of fishing, and then the fish die by the end of the season. One would presume that they will probably adapt their stocking practices; I do not know.

Question 6: (Peter Sousounis, Michigan State University) Is it possible to take some aspects of algorithms used for the economic assessment on fishing and apply them to other industries? Are there some general thought processes developed that can be applied to future analyses for other industries?

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) Our economic models were specifically developed for fisheries, but the general thought processes used could apply.

Response: (John Furlow, U.S. EPA) General methodologies for conducting economic assessments are being developed by a group at Colorado State University. Focused on gateway communities bordering the Rocky Mountain National Park, they are looking at what it is that brings tourists into the area, at what the economic benefits are to the community, and then assessing how the local economy will be affected if any changes occur to the natural resources base. For example, what will the economic impacts be if there are no more buffalo or elk? The study looks at willingness to pay, travel costs, etc., and this type of economic analysis—though not necessarily widely respected—is fairly well developed.

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) Another thing to consider is that even if you argue with the numbers of the economic analysis, it offers at least one attempt to estimate what the impacts will be, to get a sense of the magnitude of the problem. Before conducting the analysis, we first looked at all the activities that can be measured in terms of market or non-market data, and then checked if we had enough economic data to connect changes in activities with economic impacts. Recreational fishing is one of the few categories for which we had enough data linking climate to changes in species of interest, and then to the economic value of those changes.

Comment: (Michelle DePhilip, The Nature Conservancy) To add to that, an economic analysis was conducted by the University of Illinois in Chicago on the economic value of the natural resources in southern Lake Michigan. The analysis estimated the individual value of different fish species and then calculated what people would pay for the natural resources of the area.

Question 7: (Mike Rau, Wisconsin Gas Water Services) Has there been a study done on warming, taking into account possible population trends that may change in the Great Lakes region, given that people like to live in places that are warm and by water? For example, Florida is a prime destination for people. Has any study looked at the economic impacts of these types of future population trends in the area?

Response: (Susan Julius, U.S. EPA) That is a really good question. I do not believe that that´s been done yet, but there are ways for that to be studied, using economic modeling approaches that look at all the variables that determine where people live and why—and it is very much weather-related.

Response: (Peter Sousounis, Michigan State University) It is indeed a very interesting question. At the start of our assessment, we were provided with socioeconomic and population data projections for 2030 and 2050. However, those population projections do not account for the interaction between variations in population trends and a warming climate. They were straight, independent population projections.

Question 8: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) The Chicago workshop in March was concerned more with water levels, and the shipping industry had figures showing that for every inch that the lake drops, they must offload “X” hundred tons of iron ore from ships. In other words, they directly equated lake levels with economic impacts. Have water producers looked at increased pumping costs and the use of more effective chemical reactions to clean water under certain processes? Do you keep track of the pumps as they are running to monitor the amount of horsepower used to draw in water?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) For some of the lakes, the horsepower must be increased to get the volume that they want. Often, what happens is that the level over the intakes is less, decreasing the amount of water that can be taken in. Therefore, it costs a lot more to increase the horsepower, plus it also reduces the volume of water that they can take into the plant.

Question 9: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) Do you keep track of the pumps as they are running to monitor the horsepower used to draw water in? If so, do you see a difference in kilowatts consumed in 1986, when water levels were at an all-time record high, compared to now, when they are at an all-time record low?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) I do keep track of pumping, because it is one of our highest costs. The last three years, we have had a very wet spring. At my plant, which is different than those in the Chicago area, the pumps are at the bottom of the lake. We monitor the kilowatt-hours per million gallons of production, and that hasn´t changed over the years.

Questions 10: (Jeanne Bisanz, Michigan State University) Do you estimate demand? In the short and/or long-term?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) Yes, we do estimate demand—usually broken down by month and by temperature. As the temperature increases, people´s use of water increases. April, May, and June are the highest water-use months, when everyone waters their lawn. By July and August, people are less excited about watering lawns, so water use decreases. We are really dependent on forecasts, and where we are going to be in terms of our production of water use. We estimate over a five-year time frame, though it is hard to predict. For example, we more or less base our production on population projections, based on average use of water per day, per person, as well as industrial usage. But this can be difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy, if a big water user comes into the area or moves out.

Questions 11: (Jeanne Bisanz, Michigan State University) Do the West Shore Water Producers supply any farms with water?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) No, we don´t supply farms. We only supply residential and industry uses.

Questions 12: (Lon Couillard, Milwaukee Water Works) If global warming warms summer climate in the Great Lakes region, we will likely be reluctant to switch our plants to desert plants. Could that increase our irrigation demands and affect our water consumption?

Response: (John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin-Madison) Even the people in Phoenix who have desert gardens, water them at the same rate that they would grass!

Question 13: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) It seems to me that there were concerns about days with high turbidity and high contamination related to a weather event, as well as about taste and odor events related to algal production of particular kinds of species. If there were a way to get a handle on the frequency and probability of those kinds of events in the future, would that be useful to you? Or is that outside of the management and planning sphere that you engage in?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) That would certainly be useful. As algal blooms increase, so too do taste and odor problems, which require expensive changes to systems. Different methods used to rid water of bad tastes and odors, such as granular-activated carbon and powder-activated carbon, cost about $0.60 to $0.80 per pound. The more chemicals we must use, the higher are our costs, and the more it ends up costing the consumer.

Question 14: (John Ferland, U.S.EPA) Is there any correlation between changes in temperature to changes in algal blooms and use of carbon or ozone treatments to rid water of bad tastes and odor?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) We can run tests that measure odor-free water against raw water, and based on how high the threshold odor number is, we can determine how many pounds of carbon will be needed to clean it. We can also run tests to determine the concentration of bluegreen algae, which help us predict changes in the taste and odor of water and in what it will cost us per million gallons produced.

Question 15: (John Ferland, U.S.EPA) Have your costs to rid water of bad tastes and odors over the last years increased at all?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) Our carbon costs have increased over the last three years.

Question 16: (John Ferland, U.S.EPA) Is the cost increase because of a change in use of carbon or because of a change in the cost of carbon?

Response: (Roger Johnson, West Shore Water Producers Association) The cost increase for carbon is due to the increased odor in water that costs more to clean.

Comment: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) A comment for people who work on the water all of the time: some of the best records that we have of long-term changes in the lakes are from water producers. For the last 75 years, they have collected this data, counting phytoplankton every day, until the zebra mussels appeared and [then the water producers] unfortunately stopped. I urge you all not to stop looking at shifts in algal populations! It may prove to be very useful to you at some time in the future.

Question 17: (Brent Lofgren, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA) I have a question for Art Brooks regarding spring phytoplankton blooms being triggered by light availability. In a worldwide conference I participated in a short while ago, they seemed to indicate that phytoplankton blooms are triggered by temperature thresholds, not light.

Response: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) In Lake Michigan, algal blooms begin when temperatures are still 4 degrees or less, so my opinion is that they are triggered by light. Maybe in other lakes they may be triggered by nutrients or temperatures; I don´t know.

Response: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) Certainly, the growth trigger will vary by type of algae. Diatoms, which are very successful in the Great Lakes—particularly in Lake Michigan, are extremely capable of growing in cold temperatures at low average light intensities. About 50 years ago, it was demonstrated that even without cold temperatures, light can cause full blooms in some types of algae.

Question 18: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) The presentation on commercial fishing illustrated a really nice interface between some knowledge of natural history and environmental issues. Is there not some aspects of the cormorants´ biology and feeding biology or production that we really need to know more about in terms of their future impact on future fishing?

Response: (Ted Eggebraaten, Wisconsin Commercial Fishing Association, Door County Chapter) Certainly, there is a lot more that we need to know about. But as a gill netter, I rely on my net being invisible. With algal blooms, our production goes way down, because by the end of February or early March, algae rolls along the bottom the lake and gets stuck on our nets, making the nets visible to fish, so they swim around them. I donÕt know if a change in algal species will affect us, since there is much variability among species, with some getting caught in nets more than others, and some being more visible than others. If one species of algae finds something it really likes (like the zebra mussels), and then really blooms, then the impacts on the commercial fishing industry may be big.

Question 19: (John Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) Are commercial fishermen looking for potential alternative methods for fishing? For example, are you looking at other large lake fisheries that might have some of the same conditions that our lakes may have in the future? Do you have any idea of what those techniques might be and how they would affect you?

Response: (Ted Eggebraaten, Wisconsin Commercial Fishing Association, Door County Chapter) Commercial fishing is constantly evolving and progressing. We will always use new materials and try new methods. I experiment with at least a half dozen new techniques over the course of the year. Fishing and fishermen are very adaptable, we constantly try new things, which is what has kept us alive in many ways. It could be that our production times may be compressed; for example, maybe we will fish only during spawning season or at other opportune times of the year.

Question 20: (Jeanne Bisanz, Michigan State University) How many commercial fishermen would you say are at Lake Michigan?

Response: (Ted Eggebraaten, Wisconsin Commercial Fishing Association, Door County Chapter) There are probably about 90 license holders in Wisconsin, most of whom are concentrated in groups. So, in Wisconsin, there are maybe about 40 to 60 operations of commercial fishing. Michigan probably has about the same number, and there are a couple in Illinois also.

Question 21: (Patty Glick, National Wildlife Federation) This question is for Harvey Bootsma: Do you have any ideas of what the future impacts from climate change will be for the African Great Lakes? Are there any projections for them?

Response: (Harvey Bootsma, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) There is some evidence of climate change in the African Great Lakes, though not to the same extent or magnitude as that seen in temperate areas. In looking at Lake Tanganika and Lake Malawi, we know that a small change in temperature will result in large changes in thermodynamics and stratification. Lake Tanganika is only about 1 degree warmer than Lake Malawi, but its thermocline is about 100 meters, whereas the thermocline is about 200 meters in Lake Malawi.

Response: (John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin-Madison) With increased stability of the thermocline, one researcher recently found that there was less mixing. There was some evidence that the deep waters were warming up from geothermal heat.

Question 22: (Patty Glick, National Wildlife Federation) Are the African Great Lakes also relied upon as fishing resources as the Great Lakes are here?

Response: (Harvey Bootsma, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) Yes. While angling is not very popular in Africa, fishing for food is. Lake Malawi has thousands, possibly tens of thousands, of fishing operations on it. The emphasis is a little different than here, with less emphasis on commercial fishing and much more so on subsistence. Seventy-five percent of the protein from local peoples´ diets is from fish. The economic factor is greater in Lake Victoria, though, as it is the source of one-quarter of the freshwater fish from all of Africa, much of which is imported to Europe and elsewhere.

Question 23: (Patty Glick, National Wildlife Federation) Will commercial fishing operations in Africa be able to adapt to climate change the way the commercial industry here will? Or will they be more adversely affected?

Response: (Harvey Bootsma, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) It depends on the change. If it was a fairly simple change, like a change in gear type, then that may be okay. But tradition is just as important as practicality over there, so tradition may slow the process of change in fishing practices.

Question 24: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) We have representatives of two energy suppliers here, and IÕm wondering if they have any ideas about what the economic impacts of warmer lake temperatures will be in terms of less gas or electricity sold for heating water versus the additional costs of pumping.

Response: (David Michaud, Wisconsin Electric Power Co.) In terms of water temperature, clearly there is an impact because most utilities with operations on the lake use a very high volume cooling. The efficiency cycle in power plants is linked directly to water temperatures. Systems have been designed based on expected variabilities in water temperatures, keeping historical high and low temperatures in mind. But if temperatures change significantly, or even by a few degrees Fahrenheit, it can drastically affect the efficiency of the steam cycle. As the water warms at nuclear plants on a per unit basis, you can lose anywhere between 15 and 30 megawatts of output on a given day, just because of a few degrees Fahrenheit increase in temperatures. And engineers know this. Yet, if this were to occur on a permanent basis, cumulatively around the lake, the net loss would be hundreds of megawatts for plants using this kind of cooling. You would basically have to replace that generation with something elseÑindependent of low flow and population increases. So, it is an issue. Low water levels may also cause problems. If water levels fall below a certain point, all of a sudden large circulating water pumps will be in-taking air or cavitatingÑwhich would have a monstrous effect on efficiency. Those types of things were not thought about in 1986, when people were concerned about preventing inundation. Now, weÕre worried about the opposite. In the water levels game, there are winners and losers. On the positive side, you get less erosion and less flooding. On the negative side, dredging and other factors can be big money items, not to mention the environmental effects. In terms of planning for demand, you plan by population projections. But if temperature increase is added to the mix, in addition to increased demand from consumptionÑfrom air-conditioning, etc.Ñthings get difficult. In the case of plants that use cooling towers, efficiency cycles will take a hit from higher ambient temperatures, and those lost megawatts will have to be produced in some other way. This would affect the planning cycle for providing essential energy. As you can see, it is not just the energy industry affecting climate, but climate change will produce positive feedbacks that exacerbate the problem.

Response: (Mike Rau, Wisconsin Gas Water Services) On a smaller scale, warmer lake temperatures will decrease energy use for water heaters.

Question 25: (John Furlow, U.S. EPA) Do the electric utilities use the lakes to vent hot water after you cycle it through? Do you worry about there being regulations on thermal pollution to prevent you from using the lakes to vent hot water?

Response: (David Michaud, Wisconsin Electric Power Co.) In the 1970s, people were concerned about the cumulative effect of venting hot water, so the utilities did a large number of studies around the lake to see if it would heat the near-shore area in any significant way. First of all, nuclear plants generally warm water more than coal plants. But, after looking at the plumes or spheres of influence in an area of 3 square miles, the envelope of this warmwater area was about 1 degree Celsius above ambient temperaturesÑand fluctuated throughout the day. On a surface area basis, the thermal enrichment was not significant, considering that Lake Michigan is about 22,000 square miles, so people decided that there are more important issues on which to focus their concern. Quite frankly, any regulations on this might force people to go to closed-cycle cooling, where water is taken into cooling towers, evaporated, and then water leaves the basin, all of which would cause even more problems.

Question 26: (John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin-Madison) But this mixing zone issue could be a bigger problem in some of the older plants on small rivers?

Response: (David Michaud, Wisconsin Electric Power Co.) Absolutely. For utilities on the Great Lakes, thermal enrichment is probably inconsequential, but that is not the case on small rivers, where [the] area of impaction can occupy the entire cross-section of a river. Thermal blockage of migratory patterns of fish can occur in these cases. Fortunately, there are not many power plants built on limited resources like that, and are not likely to be in the future, either, for these reasons.

Comment: (Harvey Bootsma, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) The City of Toronto has actually looked at pumping hypolimnetic water (water that lies below the thermocline, is noncirculating and remains perpetually cold) for cooling of the city, and there was some concern that that would heat Lake Ontario. So, physical modeling was done to determine if this would be the case, and it was found that it would not have a measurable effect on the thermal structure of the lake.

Question 27: (John Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) I have a question about water withdrawn from lakes. Cities like Chicago, for example, take a lot of water out of the lake, process it, and it eventually goes down into the river drainage. While I do not think that this volume of water is actually that large, is this going to be an issue for the public? Will there be public concern about water being withdrawn from the lake and then being put back in, if we are expecting lower water levels?

Response: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) I actually heard the flip side of that in the late 1960s, when the City of Chicago proposed to volunteer pumping of its secondary effluent sewage into Lake Michigan, in order to compensate for lower lake levels. The response was of course no, since the volume is not significant enough to increase water levels and, of course, the added nutrients in near-shore areas would be adverse.

Question 28: (John Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) But I am wondering about what the publicÕs perception is of this issue. Do you they think about it? Are they concerned more about water volume than they are about water quality?

Response: (Ted Eggebraaten, Wisconsin Commercial Fishing Association, Door County Chapter) I had someone ask me something about that a few weeks ago. They said that the lake is low because the Chicago River is draining Lake Michigan. I do not know for sure, but IÕm guessing that substantially more water is lost to evaporation than to the Chicago River. But, I think it may be a perception of the public.

Response: (Val Klump, UW-Milwaukee Great Lakes) There are in fact many diversions into and out of the Great Lakes, with greater diversions actually going into them (with large diversions from Canada into Lake Superior). But every time low or high lake levels occur, the public thinks that there is a plug somewhere in the system that can be pulled or stopped, but the fact is: there is not. Comment: Rochelle Sturtevant, GLERL I would agree that there is definitely a public misperception about a “plug.” You do hear Chicago mentioned, as well as hydropower on Niagara as being a drain on lake levels.

Response: (John Lehman, University of Michigan) But that is a point to which science can speak. It is only a question of whether or not the public is listening.

Comment: (John Higgins, The Nature Conservancy) But that is an important issueÑthe translation of science to the public is often more important than the scientific realities themselves, since the public determines how money is spent and what policies are formed. Public opinion is what drives how environmental problems are dealt with, and I get concerned when people get crazy ideas about lake levels, what you can do with water, and who is using what water. They think that users of waters (power plants, etc.) have huge impacts on lake levels without thinking about what it would mean to re-engineer some of these systems.

Comment: (John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin-Madison) One global change impact that is occurring, due to increased flooding, is better water management. This has and will force the public to key onto the issue and improve behavior.

Question 29: (Art Brooks, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) John Jansen, as an academic and employee of the Department of Natural Resources, do you have any take on what our lake will do?

Response: (John Jansen, Department of Natural Resources) I cannot even imagine what the commercial fisheries will be fishing for. Right now, it is mostly coldwater species, which could be lost even if the lake does not go anoxic in the bottom, just because of changes in trophic dynamics that were discussed earlier. If the lake stratifies for too long and primary production does not settle to deep parts of the lake, then we will not have the coldwater fish that the commercial fishermen are harvesting. If yellow perchstone come back, which is a whole other issue, I have no idea what the commercial fishing industry will fish forÑprobably some exotic species that we do not have in the lake yet.